Butler's late homer lifts Royals over O's

Baseball Betting Lines

07/31/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Billy Butler's go-ahead, two-run homer in the eighth proved to be the difference, lifting the Kansas City Royals to a 4-3 win over the lowly Baltimore Orioles.

Butler's 10th home run of the season gave the Royals their second win in the first three games of this series. Mitch Maier added a solo homer and two RBI in the victory.

Zack Greinke (7-10) went eight innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks while fanning six to earn the win. Joakim Soria pitched a scoreless ninth for his 28th save.

Nick Markakis notched a two-run double for the Orioles, who have lost seven of eight. Adam Jones had two hits and an RBI in defeat.

Brad Bergesen lasted seven innings, yielding just two runs, five hits and a walk. He was in line for the win before David Hernandez (5-8) allowed Butler's homer in the eighth.

Hernandez came on to pitch the bottom of the eighth for Baltimore, but couldn't protect a 3-2 lead.

Chris Getz lead off with what looked to be an extra-base hit in the right- center field gap, but Markakis dove for an outstanding catch. It proved to save a run, as Butler followed a Jason Kendall single with a blast to left, putting Kansas City ahead, 4-3.

Soria pitched around a two-out single in the ninth to preserve the victory.

Maier's leadoff blast in the third gave the Royals a lead, but Bergesen shut down Kansas City's offense from there.

Bergesen didn't allow a baserunner -- other than Maier -- to advance past first base in any of the first five innings, and the Orioles finally provided some run support in the sixth.

Julio Lugo began the inning with an infield single and quickly scampered to third on Brian Roberts' base hit to right. Markakis sent a 1-0 pitch to left for a two-run double and a Baltimore lead, and Markakis later scored on Adam Jones' single for a 3-1 advantage.

The Royals cut their deficit in half in the seventh.

After Bergesen retired Jose Guillen, Alex Gordon, Mike Aviles and Maier all singled in succession, with Maier's hit driving in a run. With two runners still on base, Bergesen was able to get out of the jam by striking out Willie Bloomquist and getting Yuniesky Betancourt to ground out.

Game Notes

Kansas City leads the season series, 3-2...The Royals acquired pitchers Jesse Chavez and Tim Collins and outfielder Gregor Blanco from Atlanta in exchange for outfielder Rick Ankiel and pitcher Kyle Farnsworth...The Orioles acquired pitcher Rick Vanden Hurk from Florida in exchange for pitcher Will Ohman...The Orioles fell to 17-15 in one-run games and had as many hits with runners in scoring position (two) as they did in the previous five games combined.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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