Final preparations for Test of Champions

Horseracing Betting Lines

06/04/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The day before the running of the 142nd Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park, several of the 12 horses entered in the race had final preparations for the contest.

Ice Box and Fly Down, both trained by Nick Zito, went to the track to become familiar with the starting gate and then galloped on the 1 1/2-mile oval.

"Obviously, Ice Box has a great kick," Zito said about the Kentucky Derby runner-up. "I don't want to do anything to compromise his style of running. I've seen that before, changing styles, and it never works. Never, never, never. I hope he gets in position where he can run his race; that's all we can hope for. And, basically, he and Fly Down are the same type of horse.

"I guess everyone is going to pay attention to First Dude. He's got a good post (11) because he'll probably try and gallop out there. But I wouldn't change my horses' styles. I just hope my horses run the same way they have been."

Trainer Dale Romans had First Dude gallop around Belmont Park Friday morning. The Preakness runner-up is the 7-2 second choice in the program behind Ice Box.

"We're definitely going to be on, or close, to the lead," Romans said. "If someone wants to get out of their game and set him down inside of us, we'll let him go and sit right off.

"This horse doesn't have to be on the lead. If they let him get three-quarters in 1:14 like Seattle Slew, he'll be tough to catch. I don't think there's anyone in there that wants to sacrifice themselves and get out of their game and go chase him."

Stay Put, 20-1 in the morning-line, took to the track for trainer Steve Margolis. The chestnut colt galloped once around Belmont Park on Friday.

"Everything went well this morning," Margolis noted, "and we're excited and looking forward to it very much. We haven't plotted out the strategy, and we'll see what the weather looks like and figure out what we want to do."

Also taking a gallop around Belmont Park was Lone Star Derby winner Game On Dude.

"He's a very laid-back horse," trainer Bob Baffert indicated about the gelding. "He's got a good mind. He's very plain. But he's matured since I've had him, and, he gets over this track really well. It only took him one time around to get used to it."

The updated weather forecast for the Belmont Stakes calls for 50 percent chance of rain with variable clouds and scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe. Post-time temperature around 85 and winds Southwest at 10 to 20 m.p.h.

Post-time for the race is set for 6:32 p.m. (et).

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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