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07/31/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Usually sellers around the non-waiver trade deadline, the Nationals didn't seem to impressed on Friday with the Phillies' big midseason pickup.
One day after spoiling the Philadelphia debut of Roy Oswalt, Washington will go for a third straight win this evening in the second contest of a three-game series at Nationals Park.
Hoping to make up a small deficit for first place in the National League East, the Phillies acquired Oswalt from the Astros on Thursday and gave their new right-hander the start in last night's opener.
Oswalt, though, struggled in his debut, allowing five runs -- four earned -- on seven hits over six innings of an 8-1 Washington victory.
"I came out early a little amped up, holding the ball a little tight," Oswalt said. "I didn't really start feeling better until the last two innings."
The Nationals snapped the Phillies' season-high eight-game win streak and dropped the club 3 1/2 games behind the Braves for first place in the division.
Craig Stammen earned the victory after allowing just one run -- a solo homer by Jayson Werth in the seventh inning -- and five hits over 6 1/3 frames. Josh Willingham and Roger Bernadina both had a two-run double, while Adam Kennedy collected four hits and scored twice as the Nats won for the third time in four games.
"It was a really good performance by Craig and everybody else who took the ball," said Washington manager Jim Riggleman.
While Washington is looking to win three in a row for the first time since June 8-10, the club could make more noise off the field today than on. The Nats traded their closer Matt Capps on Thursday and then dealt infielder Cristian Guzman to the Rangers before last night's game.
Guzman was hitting .282 this year with a pair of homers and 25 RBI and his exit paved the way for Kennedy to start last night. Washington could also end up dealing Adam Dunn and his 24 homers before today's deadline.
Regardless, Washington has a game to play tonight and it will be sending out a former first-round selection to the hill.
Ross Detwiler, the sixth overall pick of the 2007 draft, will make his second start of the season after returning from hip surgery. The 24-year-old didn't have a memorable season debut as he gave up five runs -- all unearned -- on three hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings of a setback to the Brewers on Sunday.
"We did not have a good day defensively," Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said after the game. "We certainly didn't get it done today, but Detwiler has to pitch around [errors]. I thought he did a good job and minimized the damage."
Detwiler, 24, went 1-6 with a 5.00 earned run average in 15 games last season and has lost both of his previous career starts versus the Phillies, pitching to a 6.00 ERA in that span.
The Phillies will hope Joe Blanton continues to turn things around this evening. He is 4-6 with a 5.85 ERA this year and is coming off a victory over the Rockies on Monday in which he threw six innings of two-run, six-hit ball. It marked the first time in 16 starts this year that he allowed fewer than three runs in an outing.
Blanton, who has also pitched at least six innings in seven of his last eight starts, is 1-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight road outings this year. The 29-year- old righty is also 2-3 with a 6.51 ERA lifetime versus the Nationals.
The Phillies have won four of seven over Washington this year, taking two of three at Nationals Park from April 5-8. Philadelphia is 22-6 over its last 28 meetings versus Washington and won seven of nine in D.C. last year.
<< Reds hope to reclaim first place in test with Braves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds try to once again reverse their
standing in the National League's Central Division today when they host the
Atlanta Braves in game two of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds entere
<< Tigers continue road series with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers finally halted a nine-game road losing
streak last night and will aim for a second straight win over the Boston Red
Sox today at Fenway Park.
In Friday's opener, Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and d
<< Blue Jays hope to stay hot versus Indians
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays are riding a four-game winning streak
and will attempt to continue the string of strong play against the Cleveland
Indians in the second of three weekend games at Rogers Centre.
Righty Jake Westbrook
<< Wick's two home runs power Canada over Italy
Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With upsets aplenty and coming off a scare
of their own, Team Canada wasn't taking any chances against an overmatched
Italian squad in the quarterfinals of the World Junior Baseball Championships.
A day aft
White Sox aim for 13th straight home win vs. A's >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago will attempt to extend its home winning streak to
13 consecutive games tonight as they continue a three-game weekend set at
U.S. Cellular Field against the Oakland Athletics.
Yesterday, Gordon Beckham had two hits
Angels shoot for another win over first-place Rangers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim continue their quest to
gain ground on the Texas Rangers as the top two teams in the AL West continue
their three-game weekend series.
Newly-acquired Dan Haren will make his second start f
Rockies hope to break out bats against vs. Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The host Colorado Rockies can make it three straight in
suddenly potent offensive style tonight when the Chicago Cubs head to Coors
Field for the second of three games.
Colorado, which had lost eight straight before Thursd
Power-swinging Marlins resume series with Padres >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even a trip to spacious Petco Park couldn't derail the
Marlins' power train. Florida seeks a sixth straight victory at the Padres'
home park as it continues a three-game set tonight with San Diego.
The Marlins got home run
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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