Player of the 3/4 Year

Golf Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Can you believe that the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin four weeks from Thursday?

You probably can - you understand time at this point in your life - but the regular season in golf is almost over. Do we have a legitimate Player of the Year at this point?

No folks, we do not.

We can pare the list down to six, but the bigger story is that none of those six is named after a cartoon flake pitchman.

Tiger Woods won Player of the Year in a vote of his peers 10 times. Since 1997, three guys other than Tiger have won this award. In average years, Woods still brings home the hardware.

Now he's nowhere on the radar. Amazing what one accident that's never been fully explained can do. Woods hasn't won all year and truthfully, never threatened the top of the leaderboard. His best finishes are two fourth-place ties and they were at majors. His top-fives in majors notwithstanding, Woods doesn't belong in this race.

Of course, he could get into it very quickly.

Woods has the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on tap in a few weeks and he's only won that seven times. The PGA Championship is the week after and Woods has enjoyed small doses of success in major championships.

So who does that leave?

Obviously major champions belong in the conversation, but two won't be a part of ours. Masters winner Phil Mickelson will be.

U.S. Open winner Graeme McDowell stated at the British Open that he would join the PGA Tour for the remainder of 2010. Even if we took into account his PGA Tour work as a non-member this year, he tied for sixth at the WGC-CA Championship and didn't finish inside the top 25 in five other starts in the U.S.

British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen was amazing in his epic win at St. Andrews, but he's not a member of the PGA Tour, so you could just as easily vote for Nicklaus, Palmer, Popeye, me or your uncle Hal.

The other choices are two-time winners this year on tour. That group is Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Justin Rose.

We are going to bounce Furyk and Stricker. Furyk won twice early in the season, but missed the cut in two majors and his only top 10 since mid-April was a tie for 10th at the Memorial.

It's a shame Stricker gets bounced from consideration, but he hurt his shoulder around the Masters and missed almost two months. That kind of time off hurts your overall score.

Rose is an interesting case. He's probably the hottest player in golf right now, with two wins since June, but he wasn't qualified for the Masters or U.S. Open, so I have a hard time giving Player of the 3/4 Year to a guy whose early season didn't get him into the first two majors.

Els won back-to-back starts at the CA-Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational and has a tie for 18th at Augusta. He should've won his third U.S. Open and he missed the cut at St. Andrews.

The Big Easy has made it look easy at times in 2010. Els has six top 10s on tour this year, nine top-25s and is the leader on the FedEx Cup points list.

But this vote goes to Mickelson.

Lefty won a major, so that right there gets him an extra nod. Mickelson, like Els, had a great chance at the U.S. Open, but Pebble Beach swallowed him up on Sunday.

Mickelson has missed only one cut on tour this year to Els' three, and Els' have all come in his last five starts. Els' two wins came before the calendar turned to April, but he does have a strong case.

Just not as strong as Mickelson's.

On top of the Masters win, Mickelson was the runner-up at Quail Hollow, and top five in both the U.S. Open and Memorial. But when it comes down to it, the difference is that major title.

Professional golf is defined by major championships, and always has been. A Masters victory is just as good as two very quality PGA Tour victories. With records being equal, a major is worth two tour wins and that's why the Player of the 3/4 Year is Phil Mickelson.

Subject to change in the next four weeks.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- In case you were wondering, and you probably weren't, the reason for my column this week is that I'm on vacation next week.

- Cell phones will be allowed at the Wyndham Championship, as long as they are on silent. This won't go well.

- As I tweeted earlier in the week, Corey Pavin is meeting with Tiger at the PGA Championship about his interest in the Ryder Cup. My statement if I was Pavin would be this, "Love to have ya, bro, but if not, oh well." It's proven the Americans can win without him and if he doesn't want to be here, the message should be get yourself together and we'll see you in 2012. I've always believed that it's foolish to think a team would be better without Woods, but no sense in him coming to Wales without the right attitude.

- Movie moment - Caught a movie called "The Invention of Lying." It's written, directed by and starring Ricky Gervais, who I would laugh at even if he was reading my obituary, but this didn't work. It's a new classification of movie we'll call, "Great concept, flawed execution."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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