This Week in Auto Racing November 16 - November 18

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/13/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nextel Cup championship has come down to the final race with the title still up for grabs, but the best race of the weekend will likely be the Craftsman Truck Series battle between Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Ford 400 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

Although the "Chase for the Nextel Cup" winner is still in doubt entering this week's event in Florida, it is not a close race. By winning the last four events, 2006 Nextel Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson is on the verge of successfully defending his title.

When Jeff Gordon won the Bank of America 500 at the Lowe's Motor Speedway, he held a 68-point led over Johnson. It was his second consecutive win and he looked like a pretty sure bet to win his fifth series title. Gordon had just won in "Jimmie's house" and had just posted his fourth top-five in five "Chase" races.

But then Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus went on a roll that was even better than the one that won them the 2006 championship. In that year they put together a string of five straight top-two finishes (four seconds and one win). This time around he began his charge with a win at Martinsville, normally Gordon's bailiwick. He followed that win with triumphs at Atlanta, Fort Worth and Phoenix. The wins in Texas and Arizona were the first ever for Johnson at both tracks.

Now Johnson heads to the final event with a commanding 86-point lead and his competition already thinking that it is all over.

"Those guys are on an unbelievable roll...and we're just coming up short at a crucial time," said Gordon after the race in Phoenix. "It's over. It's over. Even if we win it, it's because they have problems. While we'll accept it, we don't want to do it that way."

"They're as good as any group I've seen, including Jeff in his heyday when he was winning 10 races a year and the championship by over a hundred points," said 2003 Nextel Cup champion Matt Kenseth.

Before we crown Johnson for the second time there is the little matter of the Ford 400 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. As good as Johnson is running, there is always the possibility of an engine failure or a mental error by Johnson or those around him.

This last race has become a particularly dangerous situation because many of those in the race with the "Chase" drivers are on different agendas. There are a number of drivers trying to save their own jobs that need a good finish. There are drivers who are trying to keep or get their teams in the top-35 to guarantee a starting position in next year's opening races. And there are still others making their first few appearances in a Nextel Cup cars that aren't quite used to the performance and handling of a "Cup" car. Any of these drivers could take Johnson out of the race with an ill-timed move.

Which is why Johnson will probably try to drive somewhere near the front or at least with Nextel Cup regulars where he knows what they are likely to do at any given moment.

Johnson needs to finish 18th or better to clinch the title, but don't be surprised if he runs near or at the lead for most of the day. And don't be surprised if Greg Biffle is up near the front as well. The No.16 Roush Fenway Racing driver has won the last three Homestead races.

But this race is all about Johnson and his ability to stay out of trouble and finish with clean fenders. For the No.48 Hendrick Motorsports team, that shouldn't be a problem and look for him to win a second consecutive championship.

Busch

Ford 300 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

It's the final race of the 2007 Busch Series season and in fact the final race under the Busch banner as the series will become the Nationwide Series in 2008.

The drivers championship has been locked up for a couple of months by Carl Edwards and the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford team and the owner's championship will be clinched by Richard Childress Racing and the No.29 Chevrolet team when the car starts the final race. It was Edwards' first Busch Series championship and the fourth Busch owner's title for Richard Childress. It is the 11th overall title for RCR which includes six Nextel Cup wins and one Craftsman Truck Series championship. RCR drivers have won 12 times this season - six by Kevin Harvick, two from Clint Bowyer and four by Jeff Burton.

This is just the second time that the driver and owner titles have been split. In 2003 RCR with drivers Harvick and Johnny Sauter won the owner title while Brian Vickers won the driver's crown.

Matt Kenseth won last year's season ending race beating Edwards to the checkered flag. On the final stop, Kenseth's crew had a little problem on the right side and he came out fourth behind Edwards, Paul Menard and Denny Hamlin. Kenseth moved into second place with 21 laps to go having only Edwards in front of him.

Kenseth was the fastest car on the track and trailed Edwards by about half-a- second with 15 laps to go. They were side-by-side with 12 remaining and on the next lap the No.17 Ford made the clean pass underneath Edwards.

Edwards refused to go away, but staying with Kenseth was a lot different than passing him. He couldn't do it and Kenseth took his second consecutive Busch Series victory.

Craftsman

Ford 200 - Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, FL

While the Busch Series title has already been determined and Jimmie Johnson holding a commanding lead in the Nextel Cup Series, the most exciting race of the final weekend will be in the truck series. Of course, on most weekends the most exciting race is usually in the Craftsman Truck Series.

The races are short enough that as a driver you can't wait around for the final 50 laps and it creates a great event.

Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr. have put on a great show in 2007 and have one more performance on the schedule. After an eighth-place finish at PIR Skinner will bring a small 29-point lead to the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The margin is the fourth-closest in series history and is the 12th time in 13 seasons that the championship has gone down to the final race. Interestingly, only twice has the leader failed to maintain his margin and win the championship (1999, 2003).

In 1999 Jack Sprague came from 13 points down to edge Greg Biffle and in 2003 Travis Kvapil took advantage of a Brendan Gaughan problem to come from 34 points off the pace to win the title.

Skinner can clinch the championship by finishing second (or third and leading one lap).

But Skinner would have a bigger lead if he had not been passed by his teammate Johnny Benson late in last week's race.

"I'm not the boss, I guess we're not a team," said Skinner about Benson. "I thought he was taking care of me. I don't know. I don't want to comment on it."

The move cost Skinner four points.

"All we can do is keep doing what we are doing and racing hard," said Hornaday Jr. "I've got a team that says, 'Never say die' and we're bringing a pretty good piece to the race. We'll just do everything we can."

It should make for an exciting race, probably the best of the weekend.